New poll forecasts shock result in Solihull West

The Tories are forecast to suffer a heavy defeat in stronghold Solihull West according to new poll

Sam Greenway - Local Democracy Reporter | Monday 1st July 2024 11:59pm

A shock new poll is forecasting the Conservatives could suffer a crushing defeat in Solihull West and Shirley. 

At the start of the campaign polls had pointed to the seat being narrowly won by the Tories. 

But with just over a fortnight left before the big day the polls are now suggesting the Tories have a lot of work to do to keep hold of the seat.

Survation’s poll for Best for Britain, published by the Sunday Times at the weekend, says Labour are on course nationally for a 262 seat majority. The poll said the Conservatives would be left with only 72 seats compared to Labour’s forecast 456.

The poll makes predictions for all seats being contested and that breakdown shows Solihull West and Shirley would be won by Labour. 

The pollster is not even forecasting to be close – the estimated vote share being Labour on 37.2 per cent with the Conservatives on 28.9 per cent. 

The vote share forecasts Reform would finish third with 15.8 per cent, the Green party fourth on 9.5 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 7.3 per cent.

Former MP Julian Knight, who is standing as an independent this election, is on 1.4 per cent.

The poll is based on 42,269 interviews conducted between May 31 and June 13. 

Solihull’s seat, which dates back to the 1940s, has traditionally been a Conservative stronghold but for a 10 year period between 2005 and 2015 was held by the Liberal Democrats.

If the poll is correct it would be an astonishing result given it was won by a healthy majority of 21,273 by the Tories at the 2019 general election. 

In some better news for the Conservatives the poll is forecasting the Meriden and Solihull East seat to be a Tory hold. 

Early polls in the campaign has suggested that could switch to Labour.

Survation’s latest poll suggests a close result there with the expected vote share at 30.8 per cent for the Conservatives to Labour’s 27.3 per cent. 

Survation’s poll suggests Reform would finish third on 21.5 per cent, the Green Party would be fourth on 13.3 per cent and the Liberal Democrats would be fifth on 7.1 per cent. 

The Meriden seat was won by the Conservatives at the 2019 election with a majority of 22,836.  

The Meriden constituency has also been traditionally Conservative but did have periods in the 1950s, 60s and 70s when it was held by Labour.

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